US think tank: Russia can use the idea of "Greater Romania" and the Szekler separatist movements in Transylvania
by Claudiu Zamfir / February 10, 2016,
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Moscow may use the idea of "Greater Romania" to create dissension between Bucharest on the one hand and Moldova and Ukraine on the other hand, and can support separatist movements of Szekler Transylvania - warns Center for European Policy Analysis, a think -tank in Washington, in an analysis Janusz Bugajski and signed by Peter B. Doran on the Black Sea region, draws attention to the campaigns CEPA Moscow "propaganda and misinformation" of Moscow, which aim "to discredit the pro-Western governments and liberal in the entire region. "

Black Sea Rising

"The Kremlin is seeking to build special relations with certain countries to weaken regional solidarity and joint action. In some cases, Moscow can trigger or create new protracted conflicts in territorial enclaves and border regions. Regarding Romania, the Kremlin may lodge efforts to manipulate idea latent "Greater Romania" to promote disputes regional Moldova and Ukraine, to infilitreze saboteurs to orchestrate protests and to support separatist actions such as those of Hungarian Szekler Transylvania"- states the CEPA analysis.
The Americans think-tank warns that Russia may try to prevent Romania and to explore gas resources in the Black Sea. "There is a risk of disruption in exploring natural resources in the Black Sea to Romania, either by harassing be in a dispute over territorial waters claimed by Russia, since it annexed Crimea. In addition, tourism and trade through the ports of Constanta, Varna and other Black Sea or along the Danube can be disrupted," said CEPA. "Of Romania and Bulgaria, the goal of Moscow is to neutralize the eastern flank of NATO and to ensure that their governments do not oppose the international Moscow offensive and that militarily NATO can not deter deployments of its sea." The analysts show that Romania and Bulgaria are poorly trained and equipped military, which is why Russia does not need to resort to large military forces against the order to attain its goals.
Moscow "is based on the element of surprise, camouflage, concealment and weaknesses lack of training and the opposition. The main problem for Romania and Bulgaria are their naval forces. Romania's naval strength is centered on several frigates old sustained six corvettes. Military capabilities outdated and slow reform of defense systems anti-aircraft, anti-missile and anti-ship simply gives a bonus of Moscow," state the analysts from Washington. According to them, in the military, Romania is exposed to the Russian Iskander missile, which can deliver nuclear warheads. "ballistic missiles tactical Iskander (either a conventional or nuclear) have an operating range of 400 kilometers and could reach the entire area south of Ukraine, including those important industrial cities Odessa, Krivoy Rog and Dniepropetrovsk, much of Moldova's entire coast Romanian and a significant part of the Turkish coast of the Black sea" believe CEPA analysts. Things were even more complicated for Romania if Russia and would extend the war hybrid in Ukraine to Odessa. "An extension of the war proxy of Russia in eastern Ukraine to Odessa and the Ukrainian part of the Danube Delta could suffocate also this artery critical and could cause significant losses for the countries that use the Danube as an access point the commercial heart of Europe, "said CEPA. the influence of growing Russian Black Sea would affect military and economic Romania:
"With a limited ability to force projection, regular exercise outside NATO in the Black Sea, Romania is not ready to face a strong militarized Black Sea that could threaten trade routes and energy resources."
"A potential security ramifications of the crisis could lead to reduced markets to ports on the Black Sea and the Danube to Central Europe, blocking the Danube-Black Sea Canal and limiting trade with non-EU countries, especially Turkey."

NATO neglects Black Sea

CEPA attention and NATO neglects the fact that the Black Sea region at present, given that and the Obama administration in Washington has diminished US interest towards this region. "The Black Sea is a neglected strategic alliance front Nord- Atlantica. NATO has a military presence limited; the EU has proved unable to manage the security environment in the Black Sea; and the United States diminished the influence and interests in the region under the Obama administration "- analysts say. in addition, NATO operations are conditioned by the Montreux Convention, which limits the presence of military forces in the villages of non-riparian Black Sea. "a neglect of flank security in the Black Sea by the West and the success of Moscow in the capture or neutralization of coastline east and north have exhibited increasingly Romania and Bulgaria more pressure Moscow. (...) the rise of military and non-military threats to Russia rise to the two NATO members exposed - Romania and Bulgaria - given that its capabilities are far superior naval defense capabilities maritime and airlines of both countries, "reads the analysis of CEPA.